Posted by
Layla Gonzalez on Sunday, February 25, 2007 6:27:47 PM
Salena Zito
says that electing the president of the United States was a lot simpler
in the days of our forefathers. I suspect she is absolutely right. Ms.
Zito continues:
Back in the day, members of Congress nominated a single
candidate from their party to put before the Electoral College. The
process evolved in the mid-19th century as political party machinery
matured and nominations were decided at national conventions.
It was not until reformers in the early 20th century, during the
“Progressive Era,” pushed through a mechanism to measure the popular
opinions of candidates that we saw the first presidential primary.
The 21st century has brought us the era of primaries on steroids.
The Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary once owned the
early-decision retail space. But now, not so much. Look for more than
30 states to try to fill that space and jam their presidential
primaries into January or February in 2008.
Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia,
says, “This early primary process is just courting disaster by creating
oversized, sped-up contests,” and the candidates act as though this
were 2008 instead of 2007. Sabato notes, “We are so early right now
that only an idiot or a fool could predict who will come out on top.”
More:
For the Republican contenders, this race is any man’s
game. Right now you have former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani running
out front. Sen. John McCain is not far behind. Former House Speaker
Newt Gingrich follows. Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor,
brings up the rear.
Those who distribute conventional wisdom for a living argue that as
soon as the social conservatives “find out” about Giuliani’s social
positions, they will run for the hills. Yet, for now, that wisdom
hasn’t put a dent in the Rudy Express. Like Bill Clinton, Giuliani
sucks up the oxygen when he walks into a room. And while he may
disagree with people on issues, he does not stick his finger in their
eyes when they disagree.
McCain has growing pains: He is suffering the effects of moving from
rebel to Establishment candidate. Being “Straight-talk McCain” was much
easier for his personality and style; now he must deal with the
infrastructure of his party and other political organizations, elected
officials (current and past) and all of their loyalties and fundraisers.
It was much easier for McCain in 2000 when he could just climb on
his bus and say, “Whoever is with me is fine and whoever isn’t, that is
fine too — I am going to go to the voters.”
Why Gingrich? Well, he is the smartest kid in the classroom. His
intellect and understanding of issues and how to deal with them are
what drive his support at this point. That’s particularly among
conservative voters who aren’t happy with McCain, have trouble with
Giuliani or distrust Romney. Plus, Americans have always been
fascinated by a reluctant candidate, which is why Gingrich and Gore
stay high in the public opinion polls.
Traction for Romney has been slow, but that may change. An open
election without the incumbency factor has forced all of the candidates
to begin organizing their campaigns and raising money much earlier.
Romney was early to do that; his immediate challenge is not raising
cash but defining himself.
“For Republicans, this early politicking and a front-loaded primary
process could be their worst enemy. Party leaders like situations they
can control; highly contested, high-profile primaries always run the
risk of divisions.
And thanks to this early-out intensity, getting them all lined up
behind a nominee by Election Day could be like herding cats,” and so
said Ms. Zito.
This my friends will prove to be quite interesting. Let the cats roll in…………
Salena Zito is
a Trib editorial page columnist. Ms. Zito has graciously granted me
copyright permission to reprint her work here on The HILL Chronicles.